During the upcoming weeks, the international community faces the difficult question wether to take further actions against the Syrian regime. Or not, as it seems that they're running out of non-military options, and military intervention is problematic, to say the least. The UN security council is up to this day unable to agree upon a uniform strategy to stop the violent escalation in Syria between the government of president Bashar al-Assad and Syrian protesters.
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| Image from www.al-islam.org |
Today, during a meeting of the United Nations Human Rights Council, the UN High Commissioner of Human Rights Navi Pillay declared that there should be an immediate cease fire in Syria. The Syrian ambassador Fayssal al-Hamwi reacted on Pillay by stating that these reactions promote terrorism in his country, before walking out of the meeting. If the ambassadors reaction is exemplary for his government, a peaceful solution seems very far away.
There are a few scenario's of Syria's near future: The unrest will subside as Assad shows that he respects the wishes of his people and implements the political reforms, Assad will step down and (probably) flee out of the country, maybe accepting the offer of asylum from Tunisia, or he will face an uncertain future as the unrest escalates in a nation wide civil war.
The first option seems unlikely, violence has been going on for months, and did not stop immediately after the referendum yesterday. The second option seems also unlikely. The offer from Tunisia can be considered as a sincere attempt to resolve the crisis by giving Assad a safe way out, but the cases of Libia and Egypt show that political leaders are mostly last to abandon their ship. I do hope for a swift decision, preferably by diplomatic means, to create a cease fire between the government forces and the people. A prolonged conflict due to Assad's stubbornness or the indecisiveness of the international community would be disastrous.
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